The question is: Why is it great television? And I think part of the answer can be illustrated this way: President Harry Truman said that he wanted to hear from a „one-armed economist“, because he was sick of hearing, „One the one hand … one the other hand …“ That is human nature. When you have a really important question, you want an answer. And when someone comes along and says, „Well, I think there are six factors involved, maybe seven. On the one hand, some of them point in this direction. On the other hand, some of them point in that direction. Balance of probability says it’s probably more likely than not that it’s going to go this way, but there’s upside risk, and there’s downside risk, and …“ There’s steam coming out of your ears at this point. You want an answer. And a probability judgment doesn’t feel like an answer because it says, „I’m not sure“. I mean, that’s fundamentally what a probability judgment is. It’s an expression, „I think, but I’m not sure“. That’s not good enough. You want to hear an answer! You want the one-armed economist!

That too is consistent with the EPJ data, which revealed an inverse correlation between fame and accuracy: the more famous an expert was, the less accurate he was. That’s not because editors, producers, and the public go looking for bad forecasters. They go looking for hedgehogs, who just happen to be bad forecasters. Animated by a Big Idea, hedgehogs tell tight, simple, clear stories that grab and hold audiences. As anyone who has done media training knows, the first rule is “keep it simple, stupid.” Better still, hedgehogs are confident. With their one-perspective analysis, hedgehogs can pile up reasons why they are right—“furthermore,” “moreover”—without considering other perspectives and the pesky doubts and caveats they raise. And so, as EPJ showed, hedgehogs are likelier to say something definitely will or won’t happen. For many audiences, that’s satisfying. People tend to find uncertainty disturbing and “maybe” underscores uncertainty with a bright red crayon. The simplicity and confidence of the hedgehog impairs foresight, but it calms nerves— which is good for the careers of hedgehogs.
Foxes don’t fare so well in the media. They’re less confident, less likely to say something is “certain” or “impossible,” and are likelier to settle on shades of “maybe.” And their stories are complex, full of “howevers” and “on the other hands,” because they look at problems one way, then another, and another. This aggregation of many perspectives is bad TV. But it’s good forecasting. Indeed, it’s essential.