
In my opinion, the easy part of prediction is the technology. The hard part is the social impact; the effect upon the lives, living patterns, and work habits of people; the impact upon society and culture. I'll lump all of these issues under the term the social impact of technology. It is the social impact of technology that is least well understood, least well predicted. That is hardly a surprise, since it is also the social side of technology that is least well supported. After all, the technologists are not social scientists or humanists, they are researchers and engineers. They can be excused for not understanding the social side of their handiwork. However, they cannot be excused for not acknowledging their own lack of understanding and having some social experts join their team.