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The Model Thinker

What you neeed to know to make data work for you
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The Model ThinkerThis is a book about models. It describes dozens of models in straightforward language and explains how to apply them. Models are formal structures represented in mathematics and diagrams that help us to understand the world. Mastery of models improves your ability to reason, explain, design, communicate, act, predict, and explore.
Von Scott E. Page im Buch The Model Thinker (2018) im Text The Many-Model Thinker
The Model ThinkerFrom the stock market to genomics laboratories, census figures to marketing email blasts, we are awash with data. But as anyone who has ever opened up a spreadsheet packed with seemingly infinite lines of data knows, numbers aren't enough: we need to know how to make those numbers talk. InThe Model Thinker, social scientist Scott E. Page shows us the mathematical, statistical, and computational models--from linear regression to random walks and far beyond--that can turn anyone into a genius. At the core of the book is Page's "many-model paradigm," which shows the reader how to apply multiple models to organize the data, leading to wiser choices, more accurate predictions, and more robust designs.The Model Thinkerprovides a toolkit for business people, students, scientists, pollsters, and bloggers to make them better, clearer thinkers, able to leverage data and information to their advantage.
Von Klappentext im Buch The Model Thinker (2018)
The Model ThinkerTo summarize, we live in a time awash in information and data. The same technological advances generating those data shrink time and distance. They make economic, political, and social actors more agile, capable of responding to economic and political events in an instant. They also increase connectedness, and therefore complexity. We face a technologically induced paradox: we know more about the world, but that world is more complex. In light of that complexity, any single model will be more likely to fail. We should not though abandon models. To the contrary, we should privilege logical coherence over intuition and double, triple, and even quadruple down on models and become many-model thinkers.
Becoming a many-model thinker requires learning multiple models of which we gain a working knowledge; we need to understand the formal descriptions of the models and know how to apply them. We need not be experts. Hence, this book balances accessibility and depth. It can function both as a resource and as a guide. The formal descriptions are isolated in stand-alone boxes. It avoids line after line of equations, which overwhelm even the most dedicated readers. The formalism that remains should be engaged and absorbed. Modeling is a craft, mastered through engagement; it is not a spectator sport. It requires deliberate practice. In modeling, mathematics and logic play the role of an expert coach. They correct our flaws.
The remainder of the book is organized as follows: Chapters 2 and 3 motivate the many-model approach. Chapter 4 discusses the challenges of modeling people. The next twenty or so chapters cover individual models or classes of models. By considering one type of model at a time, we can better wrap our heads around ist assumptions, implications, and applications. This structure also means that we can pull the book from our bookshelves or open it in our browsers and find self-contained analyses of linear models, prediction models, network models, contagion models, and models of long-tailed distributions, learning, spatial competition, consumer preferences, path dependence, innovation, and economic growth. Interspersed throughout the chapters are applications of many-model thinking to a variety of problems and issues. The book concludes with two deeper dives into the opioid epidemic and income inequality.
Von Scott E. Page im Buch The Model Thinker (2018) im Text The Many-Model Thinker

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Personen
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Daron Acemoglu, Chris Anderson, David Autor, A. L. Bleloch, Peter Drucker, Stephen J. Dubner, Claudia Goldin, Mark Granovetter, Garrett Hardin, Steven D. Levitt, Deirdre N. McCloskey, Cathy O’Neil, James A. Robinson, Nate Silver, Karl A. Smith, A. M. Starfield, John D. Sterman, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Duncan J. Watts, Stephen Wolfram, Stephen Thomas Ziliak

Begriffe
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Analogieanalogy, big databig data, CategorizationCategorization, Datendata, GefangenendilemmaPrisoner's dilemma, Informationinformation, Intuition, Klassifikation, knowledge workerknowledge worker, Komplexitätcomplexity, Mathematikmathematics, Modellemodel, Ockhams RazorOckhams Razor, Quantitative Modelle, Regression, Statistikstatistics, Weisheitwisdom, Wissen, Wissenstreppe
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Bücher
Jahr  Umschlag Titel Abrufe IBOBKBLB
1969The Age of Discontinuity (Peter Drucker) 25000
1994 local How to Model It (A. M. Starfield, Karl A. Smith, A. L. Bleloch) 2, 6, 2, 5, 8, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2, 2, 32173293
2000Business Dynamics (John D. Sterman) 3300
2002  A New Kind of Science (Stephen Wolfram) 10, 4, 11, 13, 6, 11, 12, 8, 7, 7, 6, 62722064794
2005  local Freakonomics (Steven D. Levitt, Stephen J. Dubner) 5, 8, 4, 8, 14, 10, 16, 1, 4, 8, 13, 10854101359
2006The Long Tail (Chris Anderson) 12, 9, 13, 14, 13, 12, 10, 7, 7, 6, 6, 320353445
2007 local The Black Swan (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) 2, 4, 4, 3, 7, 7, 8, 1, 1, 3, 5, 7867239
2008The Cult of Statistical Significance (Stephen Thomas Ziliak, Deirdre N. McCloskey) 2, 3, 4, 1, 3, 2, 6, 3, 3, 3, 1, 3233223
2008The Race between Education and Technology (Claudia Goldin) 1, 5, 5, 4, 4, 6, 7, 6, 4, 4, 6, 5735233
2010 local web Skills, Tasks and Technologies (Daron Acemoglu, David Autor) 4, 10, 1, 3, 6, 5, 9, 8, 4, 4, 5, 6486173
2011 local Everything Is Obvious (Duncan J. Watts) 1, 5, 3, 2, 5, 10, 5, 9, 7, 4, 8, 62116187
2012 local The Signal and the Noise (Nate Silver) 154, 82, 215992238
2012 local Why Nations Fail (Daron Acemoglu, James A. Robinson) 4, 6, 6, 7, 7, 9, 7, 4, 2, 1, 6, 63166254
2016  local Weapons of Math Destruction (Cathy O’Neil) 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 18, 18, 10, 10, 7, 15, 18216918257
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Texte
Jahr  Umschlag Titel Abrufe IBOBKBLB
1968 local web The Tragedy of the Commons (Garrett Hardin) 2, 2, 4, 3, 4, 3, 5, 3, 1, 4, 2, 2842448
1973The Strength of Weak Ties (Mark Granovetter) 13000

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LokalThe Model Thinker: Gesamtes Buch als Volltext (lokal: 11573 kByte)
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Beat ( 19.12.2019)

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Titel FormatBez.Aufl.Jahr ISBN     
The Model ThinkerE--00465094627SwissbibWorldcatBestellen bei Amazon.deBuy it now!

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